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CropMonitor > Winter Wheat > Risk Tools > Eyespot risk  


Eyespot risk
An HGCA project was funded to develop a risk algorithm to accurately predict the need for eyespot treatment in wheat crops, and was undertaken by SAC. Over three seasons, commercial crops and fungicide trials were evaluated to test the influence of agronomic factors on eyespot development and to judge the cost effectiveness of treatment.

The individual risk factors were added to form a single risk Score. Each factor was scaled according to their contribution to overall risk.   Calculate a Risk Score for your crop sown in autumn 2006

The table below shows the values which should be used to calculate a risk score.
Factor Level Risk points
Sowing Date <= 6 October
  > 6 October		 0
5
Eyespot GS31-32 <= 7%
  > 7%		 0
10
Rain (mm) in March/April/May <= 170 mm
  > 170 mm		 0
5
Tillage Minimum till
Plough		 0
10
Soil type Light
Medium
Heavy		 0
1
5
Brash or limestone soil 5
Previous crop Non-host
Other cereal
Wheat		 0
10
15
The maximum risk a crop can be assigned is 50. There are two treatment thresholds:
  • risk-sensitive = 20 points
    - predicting final disease incidence of 30%
  • risk-tolerant = 29 points
    - predicting final disease incidence of 45%

 
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This website was last updated on: 11/05/2008     © Crown Copyright Central Science Laboratory 2007
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All risk predictions published by CropMonitor are provided in good faith and are NOT a substitute for rigorous fieldwalking in combination with advice from BASIS qualified persons. CropMonitor accepts no liability for crop loss or damage resulting from the use of CropMonitor.